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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.