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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he does because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. However no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.